The Super Bowl is right around the corner, and prognosticators are coming out of the woodwork, most of them politely predicting the same thing: a close contest with plenty of scoring in which America’s hearts will be cheering for the underdog Saints, but Peyton Manning might make that dream come true scenario a little hard to come by. Most like the Colts to win (although not necessarily to cover the spread) and most think a lot of points will be scored.
Magazines love to play the analysis game by breaking down the teams into laughable sectors. For example, Sports Weekly claims that when the Saints are passing the ball, the Saints have the edge, and when the Colts are passing the ball, the Colts have the edge. As Ace Ventura would say, “Rrrrrreeeealllllllyyyyyyyyyy?????”
Save your money and don’t waste your time reading all those ridiculous Super Bowl prediction articles because I will simply tell you exactly what’s going to happen Sunday evening. Then you can announce the outcome before the game even starts and finally prove that you are smarter than your friends, just like you always thought. I hope I’m wrong because I’d much prefer an exciting game like last year, but who am I kidding – I’m not going to be wrong!
New Orleans Saints vs. Indianapolis Colts (-5 / 56.5o)
While most people think this is going to be a close game, I’m very worried about New Orleans’ chances if they don’t score first. The one true advantage the Saints have is an underreported but strong rushing game, averaging over 50 yards/game MORE than Indianapolis. However, after seeing Joseph Addai’s impressive cutback moves in the playoffs (and remembering what he did in his rookie year at the Super Bowl – 77 rushing yards and 143 total yards), expect to see a better than average rushing performance from the Colts.
If the Saints score first, they’ll have a chance because they can utilize the ground attack a little more. They should attack Indy’s young corners and try to strike first. Unfortunately, this won’t happen. The first quarter will be uglier than fans were hoping, with both defensive lines getting to the quarterback enough to throw the timing off for both offenses. Peyton Manning will recover faster, however, and lead the Colts on one of his 12-yards-at-a-time drives, eating some clock with the occasional run and capping it off with a TD pass in the end zone to a receiver who is someone wide open despite the fact that everyone knew it was a pass.
With the Colts up 7-0, it will hardly be time to panic, but New Orleans’ game plan will have to change slightly. It’s not the offense that will fail them, however, but rather the ill advised strategy of ignoring tackling fundamentals while trying to cause a turnover. Bears fans know this sinking feeling better than anyone, thanks to Lovie Smith’s insistence in making “forcing turnovers” a major part of the defense. It’s great when it’s successful, but the other 95% of the time, the defense simply gives up unnecessary yards after the catch/run. Needless to say, giving free yardage to Peyton Manning is a recipe for losing.
New Orleans is too talented to get shut out, though, so there will be points scored, just not as many as everyone thinks. The Saints will put up a few scores, finishing with 17 points. Manning is greedy about wins, not yards or stats, so while the Colts will control the game much of the way, don’t expect Indy to post a 42 on the board. With a lead of two scores or more, the Colts will be content with running the ball more than normal, using as much of the game clock as possible, and scoring only if it’s a low risk situation. In other words, Peyton Manning is not going to make the mistakes New Orleans desperately needs to win the game.
Final score? 28-17 in favor of the Colts. Maybe 31-17 if things get a little out of hand. Either way, you should feel safe taking the unorthodox combination of Indianapolis (-5) and the under (56.5). Your wallet will thank you.
