Everyone seems to be passing nowadays...

After a record-setting Week 1 in which the NFL as a whole seemed to abandon the run, the question Bears fans are asking is whether this is good or bad for Chicago’s playoff hopes. 

Trying to be positive, let’s start with the good: a defense like Chicago’s, predicated on causing turnovers should thrive in a pass-happy league; Mike Martz loves to design passing schemes; Jay Cutler (like most QBs) loves to air it out; and Chicago’s best RB, Matt Forte, is extremely adept at pass catching, making him a multiple threat and an extra body to be keyed on in the passing game. 

Now for the negatives: the offensive line still has trouble protecting Cutler, so more passes means more chances at the dreaded “Cutler concussion”; Cutler isn’t exactly careful with the ball in the air (50 TD - 42 INT ratio in last two seasons); Chicago winters don’t lend themselves well to the passing game; and the Bears’ receivers are hardly ready to schedule their Pro Bowl plans.

In the end, Chicago must play to its strengths.  Use Martz’s mind, use the defense and hope it can help the offense through turnovers, use Cutler’s arm, and use Forte’s mobility.  Through necessity and lack of a true star wideout, Cutler is forced to spread the offense around, so if Martz tries to use that as an advantage that keeps the defense guessing, Chicago could have some success this year with two big “ifs” – IF Cutler doesn’t turn it over, and IF the line keeps Cutler on his feet.

Happily, I was wrong about Week 1, so hopefully the Bears will prove me wrong a few more times this season.

Forte: helping balance the offense

Some critics will gloss over their embarrassing  preseason predictions and act like they were on board all along.  Not me.  Looking back, I said “I just don’t see how the Bears can win their division.”  I guess a Minnesota meltdown and an injury-plagued year in Green Bay helped, but give Chicago credit – they won the games they had to play.  I didn’t post my exact predictions, but I’m not afraid to say that I thought with Detroit getting better, 5 wins would be a success.  Kudos to the Bears for proving me and everyone wrong.  So far.

Where does the credit go to the recent success?  Is Cutler the winning factor?  I don’t think so.  Looking at the differences between last year and this year, Jay Cutler has obviously played better, but he’s hardly been all All-Pro.  The 14 INTs are acceptable given Martz’s offense, and the 23 TDs are good enough with the defense winning most games anyway, but those NINE fumbles are troublesome.  Granted, many of them are the result of an absolute crushing blow from the blindside, but the greats like Manning and Brady can feel that pressure, step back into the pocket and release the ball before getting drilled.  Basically, Cutler is aware of the poor offensive line and sacrificing himself in the process: a noble but foolish thing to do for a team with no real backup QB.

Anyway, I can’t argue that Cutler hasn’t been solid most of the season to date, but the biggest turning point in the season was Martz’s willingness to suddenly show some tender loving care toward the health of his quarterback and attack the run with more consistency.  After a couple embarrassing early season losses and a drubbing by the Giants, handoffs became more plentiful, Cutler stayed upright, the offense became more balanced (keeping the defense off-balance), and wins started piling up.  Hopefully the strategy will continue through the playoffs.

Knox - a pleasant surprise in the Cutler deal

Another season with Jay Cutler at the helm is quickly approaching, and what lies ahead demonstrates the point of this website more than ever. Most people believe Jay Cutler is talented. Most people are impressed with new offensive coordinator Mike Martz and his intricate schemes. Martz has a history of turning teams into big offensive clubs. Matt Forte seems healthy and Chester Taylor can only help the running back situation. The receivers and tight ends aren’t world beaters, but it’s been worse.

Yet… most prognosticators are picking the Bears to finish .500 or below.  Once you get away from the overhyped local coverage, you can get a better gauge of public opinion, and it’s not good.  Mike Lombardi of the NFL Network estimates 6 to 9 wins for Chicago.  Mike and Mike in the Morning have the Bears penciled down for 5 or 6 wins.  Everybody agrees that Minnesota and Green Bay are a full notch above the rest of the NFC North, so the Bears are already playing from behind in terms of talent.

I hope everyone is wrong.  I hope I’m wrong, because I’d like to stay positive, but I just don’t see how the Bears can win their division.  Let’s face it, the defense was bad last year, and unless Julius Peppers can clone himself a couple times, it doesn’t figure to get much better if Lovie is insistent on preaching a specific defensive scheme regardless of how it fits into the players’ strengths and weaknesses.  Can you imagine Pat Riley telling the “Showtime” Lakers of the ’80s to “slow it down” just because he likes a slower, dirtier style of basketball?  Would Bobby Cox tell Greg Maddux to try striking out more guys because all those groundouts are boring?  Why didn’t some coach tell Wayne Gretzky and the Islanders to play more “dump and chase” because that’s what was en vogue at the time?  You MUST match your coaching to your players’ skills, but that fact has been lost on Lovie Smith.

Back to Jay Cutler.  I’m not a Cutler hater, but I’m hardly a Cutler lover in terms of believing that he is in the upper echelon of NFL quarterbacks.  One of his teammates said Cutler could be a top 3 QB in the NFL this year.  Uhhh, so which one is he going to eclipse by December: Brees, Manning, or Brady?  Puh-lease.  As this site has always preached, Cutler is a decent quarterback who the Bears bet the farm on despite not having the pieces around him to succeed.  Now they signed Martz, Taylor, Peppers, Harris, etc., but it is still FAR from enough to compete at a Super Bowl level, so my forever unanswered question is WHY DID THE BEARS TRADE FOR CUTLER AT THE EXPENSE OF THEIR FUTURE?

The Bears are in the exact position I expected them to be in at this point – needing to sign and overpay free agents just to keep the team competitive since they sacrificed their high draft picks and their mediocre quarterback for Cutler, a mediocre quarterback.  Every NFL expert (and non-expert) will tell you that all the offensive skill in the world is meaningless without a good offensive line.  The Bears are severely lacking in that department, and O-lineman aren’t easy to snag in free agency, and when high draft picks weren’t available to develop the line, well… Chicago is left with the hodgepodge it has now in front of their savior, Jay Cutler.  For Cutler’s sake, I hope he has been lifting and running in the offseason because he’s going to be fighting off potential sacks on a regular basis.

How do you feel about Cutler and the Bears this year?  Sound off fans!

Only a nimrod would devise a system so complicated that the users couldn’t figure it out.  Not taking anything away from professional athletes, but a majority of them are in their occupation because of their athletic abilities.  Mental ability can certainly separate the great players from the good players and make borderline players successful, but a high IQ Harvard grad who runs a 5.8 40-yard dash isn’t going to last a single day in minicamp despite the big brain.

In other words, Martz’s system can only be as complicated as the lowest common denominator.  It’s safe to say that Vanderbilt grad Jay Cutler is not that guy.  Sure, the quarterback has to know where everyone needs to be on every play while the receiver only cares about the receiver (for the most part), but it’s not rocket science!  With a very long offseason with nothing to do but work out, film the occasional commercial, make the occasional charity visit, and study the new playbook, if Jay Cutler (or any QB for that matter) can’t figure it out by training camp, then he shouldn’t be an NFL quarterback anyway.  Conversely, if Martz’s schemes are so complicated that an NFL QB can’t grasp the concept, then Martz shouldn’t be a coordinator.

My point?  Both parties have had these jobs before, so suggesting that “learning a new system” is somehow as complicated as quantum physics is a complete non-story.  What matters is if Cutler can throw it to the receiver in stride on a play.  If the concern is if Cutler even KNOWS the play, then the Bears are done before the season even starts.  Even I give Cutler a lot more credit than that.

I fully expect Cutler to have his playbooks memorized and to get comfortable with his receivers and linemen in camp.  What will matter when the season starts is Cutler’s physical ability to make the plays he has memorized.

The schedule just came out, and even if Cutler is still standing late in the season, those last four weeks are a doozy – Patriots, Vikings, Jets, Packers.  Gulp!  Parity is the name of the game in the NFL, though, so you just never know.

Chicago Bears 2010 schedule

Despite the debacle in the hiring process, the fact remains that a Jeremy Bates or similar hire would have received a lot more backlash (who is this guy? what experience does he have? etc etc) than hiring a guy who won a Super Bowl.

The question that makes me nervous is whether Jay Cutler can adapt to him or not.  Kurt Warner was on the radio yesterday, saying that it’s important to be willing to change, even one’s mechanics, for a guy like Martz if you really feel he can make you a better player and make the offense better.  Why do I get nervous?  Because Cutler needs to put his faith in a new coach and trust that the coach knows what’s best.  So far with the Bears, that hasn’t been Cutler’s strength.

Martz

Well, at least Jay Cutler can’t blame his next offensive coordinator for his failings.  The Bears appeared to bend over backwards for Cutler, attempting to get an interview with his former QB coach Jeremy Bates, even though he had no experience as an NFL coordinator.  Then, they tried everyone else and failed to receive any interest until Mike Martz finally fell into Chicago’s lap.

Marinelli

I hate using phrases like “genius” or “mastermind” to describe professional coaches, because one is limited by the rules of the game and the talent on the field, but fans and talk shows hosts love to toss those words around when describing coaches like Martz.  The reality is that when his teams were talented (Rams), his record was good, and when his teams were not (Lions), his record was bad.  Thanks to a rumored dinner together, Jay Cutler and Mike Martz should be on the same page heading into the season.  From then on, it’s a crapshoot.  

As for the coaching behind Lovie, here’s a few of what the Bears are trotting out there:

• Rod Marinelli, after having led the Detroit Lions to a record setting 0-16 record two seasons ago, just before joining Chicago’s staff.
•  Mike Tice, former Vikings head coach who failed to maintain an air of discipline around a team best known for a boat party scandal.
• Mike Martz, successful head coach of the Rams and more recently the offensive coordinator for two miserable seasons with Marinelli’s Lions (including a 3-13 year in ’06) followed by a year in San Fran.

Tice

Guess who fired Martz from Detroit?  That’s right – Marinelli.  Then Rod followed it up with that 0-16 campaign, and now they all get to live happily ever after on Chicago’s staff.

Sigh.