Knox - a pleasant surprise in the Cutler deal

Another season with Jay Cutler at the helm is quickly approaching, and what lies ahead demonstrates the point of this website more than ever. Most people believe Jay Cutler is talented. Most people are impressed with new offensive coordinator Mike Martz and his intricate schemes. Martz has a history of turning teams into big offensive clubs. Matt Forte seems healthy and Chester Taylor can only help the running back situation. The receivers and tight ends aren’t world beaters, but it’s been worse.

Yet… most prognosticators are picking the Bears to finish .500 or below.  Once you get away from the overhyped local coverage, you can get a better gauge of public opinion, and it’s not good.  Mike Lombardi of the NFL Network estimates 6 to 9 wins for Chicago.  Mike and Mike in the Morning have the Bears penciled down for 5 or 6 wins.  Everybody agrees that Minnesota and Green Bay are a full notch above the rest of the NFC North, so the Bears are already playing from behind in terms of talent.

I hope everyone is wrong.  I hope I’m wrong, because I’d like to stay positive, but I just don’t see how the Bears can win their division.  Let’s face it, the defense was bad last year, and unless Julius Peppers can clone himself a couple times, it doesn’t figure to get much better if Lovie is insistent on preaching a specific defensive scheme regardless of how it fits into the players’ strengths and weaknesses.  Can you imagine Pat Riley telling the “Showtime” Lakers of the ’80s to “slow it down” just because he likes a slower, dirtier style of basketball?  Would Bobby Cox tell Greg Maddux to try striking out more guys because all those groundouts are boring?  Why didn’t some coach tell Wayne Gretzky and the Islanders to play more “dump and chase” because that’s what was en vogue at the time?  You MUST match your coaching to your players’ skills, but that fact has been lost on Lovie Smith.

Back to Jay Cutler.  I’m not a Cutler hater, but I’m hardly a Cutler lover in terms of believing that he is in the upper echelon of NFL quarterbacks.  One of his teammates said Cutler could be a top 3 QB in the NFL this year.  Uhhh, so which one is he going to eclipse by December: Brees, Manning, or Brady?  Puh-lease.  As this site has always preached, Cutler is a decent quarterback who the Bears bet the farm on despite not having the pieces around him to succeed.  Now they signed Martz, Taylor, Peppers, Harris, etc., but it is still FAR from enough to compete at a Super Bowl level, so my forever unanswered question is WHY DID THE BEARS TRADE FOR CUTLER AT THE EXPENSE OF THEIR FUTURE?

The Bears are in the exact position I expected them to be in at this point – needing to sign and overpay free agents just to keep the team competitive since they sacrificed their high draft picks and their mediocre quarterback for Cutler, a mediocre quarterback.  Every NFL expert (and non-expert) will tell you that all the offensive skill in the world is meaningless without a good offensive line.  The Bears are severely lacking in that department, and O-lineman aren’t easy to snag in free agency, and when high draft picks weren’t available to develop the line, well… Chicago is left with the hodgepodge it has now in front of their savior, Jay Cutler.  For Cutler’s sake, I hope he has been lifting and running in the offseason because he’s going to be fighting off potential sacks on a regular basis.

How do you feel about Cutler and the Bears this year?  Sound off fans!

ESPN’s Chicago Bears Blog lists Jay Cutler’s progress learning the new offense as the number 1 storyline for Bears minicamp. This is unofficially the 1 millionth story about the so called difficulties of an NFL system. Is any system really that complex, especially for people already ingrained in the game of football?!

Only a nimrod would devise a system so complicated that the users couldn’t figure it out.  Not taking anything away from professional athletes, but a majority of them are in their occupation because of their athletic abilities.  Mental ability can certainly separate the great players from the good players and make borderline players successful, but a high IQ Harvard grad who runs a 5.8 40-yard dash isn’t going to last a single day in minicamp despite the big brain.

In other words, Martz’s system can only be as complicated as the lowest common denominator.  It’s safe to say that Vanderbilt grad Jay Cutler is not that guy.  Sure, the quarterback has to know where everyone needs to be on every play while the receiver only cares about the receiver (for the most part), but it’s not rocket science!  With a very long offseason with nothing to do but work out, film the occasional commercial, make the occasional charity visit, and study the new playbook, if Jay Cutler (or any QB for that matter) can’t figure it out by training camp, then he shouldn’t be an NFL quarterback anyway.  Conversely, if Martz’s schemes are so complicated that an NFL QB can’t grasp the concept, then Martz shouldn’t be a coordinator.

My point?  Both parties have had these jobs before, so suggesting that “learning a new system” is somehow as complicated as quantum physics is a complete non-story.  What matters is if Cutler can throw it to the receiver in stride on a play.  If the concern is if Cutler even KNOWS the play, then the Bears are done before the season even starts.  Even I give Cutler a lot more credit than that.

I fully expect Cutler to have his playbooks memorized and to get comfortable with his receivers and linemen in camp.  What will matter when the season starts is Cutler’s physical ability to make the plays he has memorized.

Mike Martz, the guy the Bears reluctantly hired after failing to land their personal choices, claims to like what he sees in Jay Cutler, according to this Sun-Times article.  Duh.  What else is he going to say?!  As this site has always said, regardless of Cutler’s talent ceiling, the Bears are going to need to surround him with skilled players to succeed.  The draft is irrelevant, so Forte, Taylor, Knox, and the other receivers and tight ends are going to have to be enough for Cutler, assuming the offensive line can keep him upright long enough to through in Martz’s schemes.

The schedule just came out, and even if Cutler is still standing late in the season, those last four weeks are a doozy – Patriots, Vikings, Jets, Packers.  Gulp!  Parity is the name of the game in the NFL, though, so you just never know.

Chicago Bears 2010 schedule

As much as I think the Mike Martz signing might be a disaster in Chicago, I can’t blame the Bears for the hire.  I don’t like when people complain if they don’t have a solution in place, so it’s hard to fault Chicago for the Martz hire since the alternatives weren’t any better.  If you are choosing sides in a pickup basketball game and Rodney McCray, Pete Myers, and Kyle Macy are the only guys left, you can’t choose Michael Jordan.

Despite the debacle in the hiring process, the fact remains that a Jeremy Bates or similar hire would have received a lot more backlash (who is this guy? what experience does he have? etc etc) than hiring a guy who won a Super Bowl.

The question that makes me nervous is whether Jay Cutler can adapt to him or not.  Kurt Warner was on the radio yesterday, saying that it’s important to be willing to change, even one’s mechanics, for a guy like Martz if you really feel he can make you a better player and make the offense better.  Why do I get nervous?  Because Cutler needs to put his faith in a new coach and trust that the coach knows what’s best.  So far with the Bears, that hasn’t been Cutler’s strength.

Martz

Well, at least Jay Cutler can’t blame his next offensive coordinator for his failings.  The Bears appeared to bend over backwards for Cutler, attempting to get an interview with his former QB coach Jeremy Bates, even though he had no experience as an NFL coordinator.  Then, they tried everyone else and failed to receive any interest until Mike Martz finally fell into Chicago’s lap.

Marinelli

I hate using phrases like “genius” or “mastermind” to describe professional coaches, because one is limited by the rules of the game and the talent on the field, but fans and talk shows hosts love to toss those words around when describing coaches like Martz.  The reality is that when his teams were talented (Rams), his record was good, and when his teams were not (Lions), his record was bad.  Thanks to a rumored dinner together, Jay Cutler and Mike Martz should be on the same page heading into the season.  From then on, it’s a crapshoot.  

As for the coaching behind Lovie, here’s a few of what the Bears are trotting out there:

• Rod Marinelli, after having led the Detroit Lions to a record setting 0-16 record two seasons ago, just before joining Chicago’s staff.
•  Mike Tice, former Vikings head coach who failed to maintain an air of discipline around a team best known for a boat party scandal.
• Mike Martz, successful head coach of the Rams and more recently the offensive coordinator for two miserable seasons with Marinelli’s Lions (including a 3-13 year in ’06) followed by a year in San Fran.

Tice

Guess who fired Martz from Detroit?  That’s right – Marinelli.  Then Rod followed it up with that 0-16 campaign, and now they all get to live happily ever after on Chicago’s staff.

Sigh.