The Super Bowl is right around the corner, and prognosticators are coming out of the woodwork, most of them politely predicting the same thing: a close contest with plenty of scoring in which America’s hearts will be cheering for the underdog Saints, but Peyton Manning might make that dream come true scenario a little hard to come by.  Most like the Colts to win (although not necessarily to cover the spread) and most think a lot of points will be scored.

Magazines love to play the analysis game by breaking down the teams into laughable sectors.  For example, Sports Weekly claims that when the Saints are passing the ball, the Saints have the edge, and when the Colts are passing the ball, the Colts have the edge.  As Ace Ventura would say, “Rrrrrreeeealllllllyyyyyyyyyy?????”

Save your money and don’t waste your time reading all those ridiculous Super Bowl prediction articles because I will simply tell you exactly what’s going to happen Sunday evening.  Then you can announce the outcome before the game even starts and finally prove that you are smarter than your friends, just like you always thought.  I hope I’m wrong because I’d much prefer an exciting game like last year, but who am I kidding – I’m not going to be wrong!

New Orleans Saints vs. Indianapolis Colts (-5 / 56.5o)

While most people think this is going to be a close game, I’m very worried about New Orleans’ chances if they don’t score first.  The one true advantage the Saints have is an underreported but strong rushing game, averaging over 50 yards/game MORE than Indianapolis.  However, after seeing Joseph Addai’s impressive cutback moves in the playoffs (and remembering what he did in his rookie year at the Super Bowl – 77 rushing yards and 143 total yards), expect to see a better than average rushing performance from the Colts.

If the Saints score first, they’ll have a chance because they can utilize the ground attack a little more.  They should attack Indy’s young corners and try to strike first.  Unfortunately, this won’t happen.  The first quarter will be uglier than fans were hoping, with both defensive lines getting to the quarterback enough to throw the timing off for both offenses.  Peyton Manning will recover faster, however, and lead the Colts on one of his 12-yards-at-a-time drives, eating some clock with the occasional run and capping it off with a TD pass in the end zone to a receiver who is someone wide open despite the fact that everyone knew it was a pass.

With the Colts up 7-0, it will hardly be time to panic, but New Orleans’ game plan will have to change slightly.  It’s not the offense that will fail them, however, but rather the ill advised strategy of ignoring tackling fundamentals while trying to cause a turnover.  Bears fans know this sinking feeling better than anyone, thanks to Lovie Smith’s insistence in making “forcing turnovers” a major part of the defense.  It’s great when it’s successful, but the other 95% of the time, the defense simply gives up unnecessary yards after the catch/run.  Needless to say, giving free yardage to Peyton Manning is a recipe for losing.

New Orleans is too talented to get shut out, though, so there will be points scored, just not as many as everyone thinks.  The Saints will put up a few scores, finishing with 17 points.  Manning is greedy about wins, not yards or stats, so while the Colts will control the game much of the way, don’t expect Indy to post a 42 on the board.  With a lead of two scores or more, the Colts will be content with running the ball more than normal, using as much of the game clock as possible, and scoring only if it’s a low risk situation.  In other words, Peyton Manning is not going to make the mistakes New Orleans desperately needs to win the game.

Final score? 28-17 in favor of the Colts.  Maybe 31-17 if things get a little out of hand.  Either way, you should feel safe taking the unorthodox combination of Indianapolis (-5) and the under (56.5). Your wallet will thank you.

Thanks to Minnesota’s inability to squeeze the pigskin and Brett Favre’s untimely interception, the Saints are marching to the Super Bowl.  As predicted, the Colts just wore down the less talented Jets, even though New York fans have to be pleased with Sanchez’s performance overall.  I don’t know what the stats were, but it seemed that anytime the Jets were staring at 3^rd and long and a pass was inevitable, Sanchez managed to come through.  In the end, though, even a Rex Ryan defense couldn’t hold Manning and company below 30, so the Super Bowl will be a matchup of the two best teams in the league, and it should be a doozy. 

Stay tuned to TJC for my not-so-expert prediction on the big game later next week.

One thing is certain: I will throw as many touchdowns as Jay Cutler in tomorrow’s conference championship games.  After that, it’s all up for grabs.  Lucky for you, however, I will tell you exactly who will win and who will cover.  Let’s take a look:

AFC Championship

New York Jets @ Indianapolis Colts (-8)

Despite the 9-7 record, the Jets only lost by more than 8 points twice this year.  All of the numbers point to the Colts winning, but likely by less than a touchdown.  That’s not the way I see it though.  I see Peyton Manning punishing New York with a long tedious touchdown drive in the first quarter.  Playing from behind, Mark Sanchez will have to throw more and that will spell trouble for the Jets.  Besides the rookie Sanchez, the Jets don’t exactly boast the NFL’s best receivers.

New York might hang around, but look for the Colts to play mistake free while a costly turnover or two will make the game seem too long for New York fans.  In the end, Manning and the Colts will head to the Super Bowl with a double digit victory over the Jets.

TJC’s pick: Indianapolis (-8)

NFC Championship

Minnesota Vikings @ New Orleans  Saints (-3.5)

For some reason, I’ve heard nothing but love for the Vikings from most analysts on ESPN  Radio over the past week.  Once again, I don’t see it that way.

Yes, I think that Minnesota’s offensive attack is impressive, and the defense can be dominant at times, but with all of the weapons New Orleans’ head coach Sean Payton has at his disposal, I don’t think the Vikings can contain Drew Brees over the course of an entire football game.

In what could be a shootout, home field advantage will come into play.  Adrian Peterson hasn’t topped 100 yards rushing since mid-November, and his yards/carry has been on the decline, so either he’s nursing an injury or is just a little worn down.  Either way, it’s going to make Favre throw plenty.  That hasn’t been a problem most of the season, but this time around, I see the Saints winning the turnover battle and subsequently the game.

The all important question is will the Saints cover the 3.5 points.  Yes, yes they will.  Payton’s schemes will befuddle the Vikes and New Orleans will put up a handful of TDs as they advance toward a matchup with the Colts in a couple weeks.

TJC’s pick: New Orleans (-3.5)

Wow!  Not sure where that effort came from, but Jay Cutler and the rest of the Bears made the city proud last night by performing up to the task on a prime time game for once.  Cutler upped his trade value (hey, this is TradeJayCutler.com after all) with an impressive performance against a top tier team. 

I didn’t even find his lone interception to be nearly as detrimental as Jon Gruden did.  Gruden is big on hyperbole, and he was all over Cutler for throwing that interception, but the truth is it was 3^rd and a ton, and Cutler let it fly about 30 yards.  You never want to get picked off, but if you’re going to give up an interception, that’s the time to do it.  If it’s simply incomplete, you’re punting anyway, and with a decent return the Vikings have the ball in the same place anyway.  Calm down, Chucky.

Not to be overlooked are the 4 touchdown passes.  Fans don’t expect 4 TDs every time out, but what was nice to see was the lack of mistakes in crunch time – no overthrowing, no underthrowing, etc.  The defense didn’t help the cause by utterly collapsing and giving up 30 second half points, and even the reliable Robbie Gould couldn’t help in OT, but the Bears did just enough to beat the Vikings and prevent Favre from winning his first game ever after falling behind by 17 points or more.

I give the Bears a heap more credit than the Colts this week.  In games that “don’t matter,” one team still tried to win while the other was content in basically suspending the competitive spirit of the game until the games “matter” again.  Using Indy’s logic, shouldn’t they just sit Manning in Week 1?  Sure a first week game won’t have a great effect on a team likely to make the playoffs, so why risk injury?

Maybe the Bears should have sat Cutler the past couple weeks once the chance at a playoff berth disappeared.  Why risk injury on a player considered to be the franchise in a season of lost hope?  Save him for next year when the records are wiped clean again.  Can you imagine an NFL where every coach only put out his best team when he felt a victory was relevant to the playoff picture?  The Lions’ starters wouldn’t have played a down for 2 years! 

What Indy coach Jim Caldwell did was embarrassing to the sport.  Never underestimate the need for consistency and timing when it comes to playing winning football.  The best way for healthy players to get better heading into the playoffs is to play, not sit on the bench.  Hopefully Caldwell’s mistake won’t cost them a Super Bowl.