It’s not easy being right when one’s rooting interest is in direct opposition to the reality at hand.  Unfortunately, the reality at hand is the mediocrity known as the Chicago Bears and also unfortunately, I and many others not employed by the Bears knew the path this thing was going to take a couple years ago.  Now here we are, looking at a team with a highly paid, fundamentally unsound quarterback who is surrounded by a complete lack of talent on the offensive end and being coached by a so-called offensive mastermind who prefers to hammer home a stubborn offensive scheme rather than adapt to the talent given.  Jay Cutler has some positive attributes, but throwing accurately to a spot is not one of them, and a lack of receiver talent only accentuates the problem.

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On the defensive side, things still look good but seem to be wasted, because when the offense eventually acquires enough talent to succeed, the defense will be too old to compete.  Fans could expect to rebuild the defense through the draft, but Chicagoans are well aware of what happens when the Bears attempt to draft talent – they are soon left paying for free agents to fix the problem.

Green Bay obviously knows what to do for long-term success, and even Detroit seems to finally have a handle on how to rebuild properly, although much of the Lions’ short term success will depend on keeping Matthew Stafford healthy.  That leaves Chicago fighting with Minnesota to try to figure out how to patch up the mess in the bottom of the NFC North.  In the NFL, change can happen quickly, but without a depth of talent, it becomes a lot harder.  Now that Cutler is becoming less and less trade-able by the game, the Bears are going to be in a holding pattern for a few years.  My biggest fear: when Chicago finally figures out a way to develop a strong line and some receivers, Cutler will be gone and there won’t be enough money for a top-tier quarterback, ensuring mediocrity once again.  The only viable solution is to draft well, so pray hard, Bears fans, pray very hard.

Last week this site posted an entry questioning whether a pass-happy NFL was good or bad for the Bears.  After Week 1 set a record in overall passing yards, Week 2 surpassed Week 1!  Guess what, in Week 2, Bears fans also got their answer – too much passing = too much losing.  As stated in the past, Chicago’s RB Matt Forte is skilled at pass receiving, which he proved in a 10-catch performance last Sunday.  Great, but at what expense?  What happened when the Bears followed suit with the league, handing off to Forte a miniscule 10 times and passing at a record rate?  They got creamed by New Orleans.

Hopefully, Martz watches the video as someone possessing common sense and thinks “lesson learned,” because love him or hate him, Jay Cutler is the only Bears QB with an NFL-ready arm, and risking his life by not mixing up the play calling is no way to win a game, nor a division.  With the Packers coming into town, a lot is at stake in Week 3.  Solid defense and a controlled, balanced offensive attack could make it a close game.  Forcing the passing issue will lead to a double digit halftime deficit, though, so let’s all hope Martz shows some humility and plays to the talent he has been given and not to the schemes he desires to see.

After a record-setting Week 1 in which the NFL as a whole seemed to abandon the run, the question Bears fans are asking is whether this is good or bad for Chicago’s playoff hopes. 

Trying to be positive, let’s start with the good: a defense like Chicago’s, predicated on causing turnovers should thrive in a pass-happy league; Mike Martz loves to design passing schemes; Jay Cutler (like most QBs) loves to air it out; and Chicago’s best RB, Matt Forte, is extremely adept at pass catching, making him a multiple threat and an extra body to be keyed on in the passing game. 

Now for the negatives: the offensive line still has trouble protecting Cutler, so more passes means more chances at the dreaded “Cutler concussion”; Cutler isn’t exactly careful with the ball in the air (50 TD - 42 INT ratio in last two seasons); Chicago winters don’t lend themselves well to the passing game; and the Bears’ receivers are hardly ready to schedule their Pro Bowl plans.

In the end, Chicago must play to its strengths.  Use Martz’s mind, use the defense and hope it can help the offense through turnovers, use Cutler’s arm, and use Forte’s mobility.  Through necessity and lack of a true star wideout, Cutler is forced to spread the offense around, so if Martz tries to use that as an advantage that keeps the defense guessing, Chicago could have some success this year with two big “ifs” – IF Cutler doesn’t turn it over, and IF the line keeps Cutler on his feet.

Happily, I was wrong about Week 1, so hopefully the Bears will prove me wrong a few more times this season.

Maybe it’s a little early, but even though the season doesn’t kick off for two a half weeks, it’s pretty obvious what the Chicago Bears are going to be.  What’s never obvious in the NFL, however, is how that will translate into wins and losses in the regular season.  Last year, despite an inability to protect the QB, despite a grumpy demeanor by Jay Cutler, and despite some odd coaching decisions along the way, the Bears beat the odds and fell into the NFC Championship.  After the small handful of traditionally elite teams, strength of schedule seems to have a lot more to do with playoff potential than perceived talent by the experts.

Despite last year’s winning record, the Bears’ schedule this year still looks fairly tame.  Then again, so do the Bears.  Without further adieu, let’s take a comically early look at the schedule, accurately predicting each game’s outcome:

9/11 vs. Atlanta: ATL 27, CHI 16

9/18 @ New Orleans: NO 41, CHI 16

9/25 vs. Green Bay: GB 27, CHI 24

10/2 vs. Carolina: CHI 33, CAR 9

10/10 @ Detroit: DET 24, CHI 17

10/16 vs. Minnesota: CHI 23, MIN 14

10/23 @ Tampa Bay (London): CHI 13, TB 3

11/7 @ Philadelphia: PHI 24, CHI 20

11/13 vs. Detroit: CHI 27, DET 6

11/20 vs. San Diego: CHI 20, SD 17

11/27 @ Oakland: CHI 27, OAK 0

12/4 vs. Kansas City: KC 21, CHI 9

12/11 @ Denver: DEN 17, CHI 10

12/18 vs. Seattle: CHI 38, SEA 20

12/25 @ Green Bay: GB 34, CHI 23

1/1 @ Minnesota: CHI 24, MIN 23

Final Record: 8-8.

Unfortunately, 8-8 won’t get it done in the NFC this year, so the Bears will have to take their step back and learn from it.  Of course, my predictions could be all wrong and Roy Williams could suddenly figure out how to catch balls without dropping them, Marion Barber could remain healthy, Matt Forte could sign a deal he wants even though he’s already under contract, Brian Urlacher and the rest of the defense could discover the fountain of youth, the offensive line could jell immediately, and Jay Cutler could become the positive, emotional leader most people didn’t think he could be.  Or… more likely, the Bears will go 8-8.  Sure, they’ll pull an upset or two (my guess is against San Diego), but they’ll probably lose a game or two they shouldn’t (Detroit? Denver?), and in the end, this mediocre team will finish with a mediocre record.

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As if Jay Cutler didn’t have enough to worry about with his own inaccuracies and problems with last year’s offensive line, things only got worse as the Bears couldn’t resign veteran C Olin Kreutz, forcing the franchise to put this already makeshift offensive line at the hands of Chris Spencer, a veteran in his own right.  Spencer is not to be solely blamed for Cutler’s future concussions and, depending on who you ask, may even be a slight upgrade over a Kreutz who would have been playing in his 14th NFL season, but the cohesiveness of a line is a must when it comes to protecting the QB, and a new center will set back that chemistry even more.

Time will tell, but if I were in the Bears front office, I’d be trying a little harder to find a solid backup QB this year to avoid a Collins2.0 situation.

Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers won the Super Bowl, a destiny that the Bears could have thrown a wrench in with a little more offense in the last regular season game, sending the Pack home without a playoff berth.  It wasn’t meant to be, however, and as these things seem to go, destiny came back and defeated Chicago at home as the Bears were left watching their hated rival hoist the Lombardi trophy once again.  I stop short of suggesting it was karma because the Bears DID play to win on that last day of the season: they simply weren’t good enough, which they proved once again several weeks later.

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The end result was another Super Bowl victory by a team with a quarterback capable of being a team leader on the field.  There are always exceptions (Trent Dilfer), but most often, the Super Bowl champ possesses a QB that the team can rely on when everything else isn’t working right.  Off the field stuff seems irrelevant, as QBs as different as Roethlisberger and Drew Brees have won titles recently, but the similarities they have is the take over attitude on the field.  Aaron Rodgers is no different.  Despite numerous drops by his receivers in the Super Bowl, Rodgers remained calm and confident and helped put enough points on the scoreboard against one of the best defenses in the league to win a Super Bowl.

The question Bears fans need to ask is whether Jay Cutler is that type of field leader.  When the chips are down (and I’m not talking about injuries), will Cutler make the players around him better, or will he sulk and let a negative play or two determine the outcome?  What does Cutler bring to the table besides a strong arm and some potential?  If you truly aren’t confident that Cutler is the answer, then maybe it’s time to rethink the overall future for the Bears.

According to several reports, it sounds like it’s official: Jay Cutler suffered a sprained MCL in the game yesterday.  Knowing that now, should he have continued playing?

My thoughts: I’m glad he didn’t, because the offense functioned better when Hanie was in the game, so questioning a player’s toughness is irrelevant and not worth fighting over.  Having seen the beating Cutler has taken this year, it’s hard to question the toughness of a player who has been working toward a goal only to get hurt.  Giving Cutler the benefit, I assume that if he felt he could play, he would have.  As for his performance, read the post below.

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In the end, it played out as expected: when it mattered most, one team played with poise, with purpose, and maintained control throughout the game.  The other team came out embarrassingly flat, dug itself a hole, seemingly found some late inspiration in an attempt to save face, but it was too little, too late.  Bears fans have seen this scenario too many times before.

Did the defense play well?  Yes, but not until they failed to show up for the first two minutes of the game as Aaron Rodgers methodically picked apart Chicago on the first drive resulting in a clean, efficient, quick score which showed the home team that the Packers were well prepared.  Playing from behind is never a recipe for success, so as much as the defense did to stabilize the game the rest of the way (only allowing one more TD), they put the offense in an uphill position before they held the ball.

Now for Cutler and the offense.  I see no need to comment on Jay Cutler’s injured knee because, for one, it’s pure speculation at this point (although an MCL injury seems to be the latest word), and two, if there’s one thing Cutler has shown over time is the ability to stay on the field.  Therefore, I can only comment on Cutler’s play in the NFC Championship Game.  One word comes to mind: poop.  In one half, Jay Cutler demonstrated everything that makes him frustrating, specifically incredible inconsistency when accuracy is most needed.

You don’t have to be an NFL analyst to see that Cutler was throwing off his heels, making ill advised throws (some seemed like bail out “lobs”), and showing a general disinterest.  His mood and mindset is irrelevant if his play is akin to his perceived talent, but the truth is that Cutler threw several balls asking to be intercepted but was lucky his numbers weren’t even worse than the end result.  Injury or not, the Bears were better off without Cutler in the second half.

Think about the last statement: the Bears were better off without Cutler in the second half. Not matter how much a Cutler fan you might be, it’s hard to argue against that statement.  In the NFC Championship Game, the Chicago Bears had a better chance of coming from behind and stealing a victory with Caleb Hanie behind center than Jay Cutler, healthy or otherwise.  Let that sink in for awhile, and readers will suddenly understand the point of this website.  Would that ever be the case with Aaron Rodgers and the Packers?  Never, but many people want to put Cutler at the same level as Rodgers and others and it’s simply not the case.

It’s not that a QB isn’t allowed to have a bad game (even the “unstoppable” Tom Brady and the Patriots failed to sniff the AFC Championship Game), but it’s Cutler’s overall decision-making and attitude in his “bad” games that make it obvious that his team is not going to win on that day.

Cutler was far from the only reason the Bears lost yesterday.  The lack of any offensive playmakers outside of Matt Forte was reason enough to think back about the early round picks Chicago could have used on developing the offense and the line while letting a QB like Kyle Orton carry the current team to its potential.  Fans, even Rex Grossman carried the Bears to a Super Bowl matchup, so don’t fire back that Orton couldn’t have done the same.  If you have the opportunity to get an elite QB like Manning, Brady, Brees, Rodgers, etc., I am all for making the deal to get it done.  Unfortunately, Jay Cutler proved that he isn’t one of those on Sunday.

It’s true: Jay Cutler’s postseason record is spotless.  He has never lost a playoff game in the NFL.  Ok, it’s also true that Cutler has never PLAYED in a playoff game, but let’s not argue over semantics.

As much as this site has questioned Cutler’s ability over the years, I’m not ready to dismiss the Bears chances simply because the starting quarterback is playing in his first playoff game.  It’s still just a football game, and if there’s one positive thing to take away from Jay Cutler’s penchant for the aloof, it’s that he doesn’t seem to get overhyped for a game, which is a good trait to have for an NFL quarterback.  See that, I just paid Cutler a compliment.

On the other side, Matt Hasselbeck will be starting his 11th playoff game of his career.  Does that give Hasselbeck and the Seahawks the edge then?  Not at all.  Hasselbeck is 5-5 in the playoffs, so while experience can’t hurt, talent and preparedness still matter, and the Bears are more talented than Seattle.  In fact, in Hasselbeck’s last playoff game against the Bears, it was a similar situation in that the Bears were home, they were the better team, but they had a QB (Grossman) who only had one playoff game under his belt (a loss to Carolina a year earlier).  The result?  An uninspired performance by Hasselbeck and an overtime win by the Bears.

I’m still not confident in Chicago’s roster in terms of it being talented enough to win a Super Bowl, but for this Sunday, the Bears are the better team and should dispose of Hasselbeck and his squad from Seattle.  The Seahawks won the regular season battle, but I foresee Jay Cutler getting his first playoff win and preserving his spotless postseason record.

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After a very weak performance to round out the regular season, Jay Cutler saw his QB Rating (or his Passer Rating as it’s more often called) drop to 86.3.  Meanwhile, Kyle Orton kept his comfortable seat on the bench in Denver as Tim Tebow tried his hand at this NFL QB thing, giving Orton a final Rating of 87.5 for the year.  What do these numbers tell us?  For starters, we know that it’s a mess of calculations involving yards, attempts, completions, touchdowns, and interceptions.  In the end, wins matter most but despite having SEVEN more wins as a starter than Orton this year, Cutler’s rating was lower.  Is that justified?

NFL stats are always more “effect” than “cause,” and the Passer Rating is no different.  Just as it can easily be proven that “winning teams run the ball more often” is effect rather than cause (they run because they are winning and want to minimize risk while maximizing clock usage), the same can be said of the Passer Rating since yards play a large part in the equation.  Orton was given a terrible team this year, and with no running game (free Twinkie to someone outside of Denver who can name a healthy Broncos RB) and frequent deficits, his only choice was to throw and throw often.  It is a credit to Kyle that in throwing for over 3,600 yards, he only threw 9 interceptions, but the reality is that many of these yards likely came against prevent and sagging defenses.  No defense wants to give up points, but when one team is down by several scores late in a game, the defense is likely to sag, give up chunks of yardage in the passing game, and with a break here or there, the worse team can score on occasion.  Orton took advantage of these situations and finished the year on the bench but with a pedestrian Passer Rating, which sums up his talent fairly well.

Now let’s look at the best quarterbacks in the league this year.  In no particular order, it’s hard to argue that Brady, Vick, Rodgers, and Rivers weren’t the four best QBs in 2010.  What do they have in common?  They’re the only QBs with a Passer Rating above 100 this season.  Despite the extremely small sample size, one has to admit that, in the long run, Passer Rating does a decent job of reflecting a quarterback’s performance.  Once again, Cutler’s 86.3 rating would indicate that he is an average QB. 

Rather than take shots at Cutler for not being better and living up to his so-called “potential,” maybe Bears fans should be ecstatic that the athlete with the consistently mediocre numbers actually overachieved and got 10 wins out of that 86.3 rating and played a role in getting the Bears the #2 seed in the NFC.  Don’t hate on Jay: celebrate Chicago’s good fortune in going 11-5 given the situation.  A couple more weeks of anomalies on the field and a Super Bowl is a real possibility.

(image from BleacherReport.com)