Thanks to Minnesota’s inability to squeeze the pigskin and Brett Favre’s untimely interception, the Saints are marching to the Super Bowl.  As predicted, the Colts just wore down the less talented Jets, even though New York fans have to be pleased with Sanchez’s performance overall.  I don’t know what the stats were, but it seemed that anytime the Jets were staring at 3^rd and long and a pass was inevitable, Sanchez managed to come through.  In the end, though, even a Rex Ryan defense couldn’t hold Manning and company below 30, so the Super Bowl will be a matchup of the two best teams in the league, and it should be a doozy. 

Stay tuned to TJC for my not-so-expert prediction on the big game later next week.

One thing is certain: I will throw as many touchdowns as Jay Cutler in tomorrow’s conference championship games.  After that, it’s all up for grabs.  Lucky for you, however, I will tell you exactly who will win and who will cover.  Let’s take a look:

AFC Championship

New York Jets @ Indianapolis Colts (-8)

Despite the 9-7 record, the Jets only lost by more than 8 points twice this year.  All of the numbers point to the Colts winning, but likely by less than a touchdown.  That’s not the way I see it though.  I see Peyton Manning punishing New York with a long tedious touchdown drive in the first quarter.  Playing from behind, Mark Sanchez will have to throw more and that will spell trouble for the Jets.  Besides the rookie Sanchez, the Jets don’t exactly boast the NFL’s best receivers.

New York might hang around, but look for the Colts to play mistake free while a costly turnover or two will make the game seem too long for New York fans.  In the end, Manning and the Colts will head to the Super Bowl with a double digit victory over the Jets.

TJC’s pick: Indianapolis (-8)

NFC Championship

Minnesota Vikings @ New Orleans  Saints (-3.5)

For some reason, I’ve heard nothing but love for the Vikings from most analysts on ESPN  Radio over the past week.  Once again, I don’t see it that way.

Yes, I think that Minnesota’s offensive attack is impressive, and the defense can be dominant at times, but with all of the weapons New Orleans’ head coach Sean Payton has at his disposal, I don’t think the Vikings can contain Drew Brees over the course of an entire football game.

In what could be a shootout, home field advantage will come into play.  Adrian Peterson hasn’t topped 100 yards rushing since mid-November, and his yards/carry has been on the decline, so either he’s nursing an injury or is just a little worn down.  Either way, it’s going to make Favre throw plenty.  That hasn’t been a problem most of the season, but this time around, I see the Saints winning the turnover battle and subsequently the game.

The all important question is will the Saints cover the 3.5 points.  Yes, yes they will.  Payton’s schemes will befuddle the Vikes and New Orleans will put up a handful of TDs as they advance toward a matchup with the Colts in a couple weeks.

TJC’s pick: New Orleans (-3.5)

According to several reports, Jay Cutler is being allowed to interview, or at least talk with, potential offensive coordinators for the Bears.  The argument is that a franchise quarterback should feel comfortable with the guy calling the plays.  I agree with the logic of the statement, but what needs to be examined is whether Jay Cutler is really a franchise quarterback.

While the term itself is subjective, it would suggest that the quarterback has the talent, and it’s the rest of team that is bringing the success of the franchise down.  Boost up the surrounding talent, and the quarterback will confidently lead the team in prolific winning history, right?

It’s too much to ask each “franchise” quarterback to win a Super Bowl every year when surrounded by a good team because it’s just not possible – the competition may boast similar talent, injuries or bad luck can play a role, etc.  However, leading a playoff-caliber team to the second week of the NFL Playoffs is certainly a simple request of a franchise quarterback and his talented team, so let’s see how Cutler fares against the 8 starting quarterbacks still in the hunt for the Super Bowl this year.  Remember, to be fair, we are not comparing Cutler and the Bears (admittedly less talented than the 8 remaining teams), but rather Cutler on each current playoff team vs. their current quarterback.

Let’s start in the AFC:

Indianapolis: No one in their right mind would take Cutler over Peyton Manning for this squad, and it’s been said to me by some readers that a comparison isn’t even fair (which only points to Cutler’s mediocrity).

Advantage: Peyton Manning

San Diego: The Chargers have plenty of weapons, and while Cutler would possibly succeed with receivers like Jackson, Gates, etc., Philip Rivers has been doing it as well as could be expected.

Advantage: Philip Rivers

Baltimore: Joe Flacco seems to have a knack to succeed when called upon.  On a team with a strong defense and an impressive running game, Flacco has been able to light it up when needed (first half of the season) or reign it in and play conservatively if that’s what the playbook calls for.  Basically, he has managed the games well this season, giving his team the best chance to win.  Even if you believe Cutler has more raw talent than Flacco (read: can throw farther), there’s no denying that Flacco is the better fit for this team which can’t afford numerous mistakes from the QB position.

Advantage: Joe Flacco

New York: A special season by corner Darrelle Revis and a dominating running game of late has given the Jets new life in the second half.  Unlike Flacco, when Mark Sanchez has been asked to do more, the results have often been disastrous.  Cutler would fare better with this crew.

Advantage: Jay Cutler

Now on to the NFC

New Orleans: Drew Brees has been keeping himself in unbelievable shape both mentally and physically, using every weapon available on the field.  Even Manning or Brady couldn’t do more with this talented group.

Advantage: Drew Brees

Minnesota: Brett Favre may be aging, but there’s no one on Earth that would choose Jay Cutler over Brett Favre to lead a playoff caliber team to victory.  Favre tends to get the most out of marginal talent with potential, while Cutler’s biggest weakness is propelling the average teammate into something valuable.

Advantage: Brett Favre

Dallas: The defense has been leading the charge lately, but Tony Romo has dismissed the naysayers but escaping trouble and winning big in December (and now January).  Cutler fans are still waiting for their shining moment.  Until then, no one would take Cutler’s arm over Romo’s whole package.

Advantage: Tony Romo

Arizona: With the Cardinals’ defense being hit or miss lately and a running game dependent on a guy named Beanie, Kurt Warner has been called on to throw up points as quickly as he did in the “Greatest Show on Turf.”  Warner hasn’t disappointed, and his accuracy when it matters most puts him far ahead of Cutler.

Advantage: Kurt Warner

This comparison isn’t totally fair to Jay Cutler because in many cases, these playoff teams have catered to their current QB’s strengths, making Cutler an odd replacement regardless of talent.  However, on a level playing field of any kind (poor team, average team, playoff team, etc.), it’s hard to argue taking Cutler over anyone other than Mark Sanchez (and possibly Flacco for you Cutler lovers out there).

In other words, even if the talent on the Bears ascends to the level of the current playoff teams, Chicago will still be the underdog with Cutler at the helm.  When that occurs under just about any playoff scenario, you can’t really call him a franchise quarterback, can you?

Peyton Manning was named the NFL’s MVP.  Again.  On a positive note, Jay Cutler finished with the same amount of votes as Chris Johnson, the all-world running back from the Titans who seemingly set a record every time he touched a football near the end of the season.

NFL MVP Voting

 

Adam Schefter of ESPN has reported that the Bears are likely to retain Lovie Smith.  That was pretty much the assumption heading in to the news conference scheduled for later this afternoon anyway, but you can probably expect some other coaching changes within the organization even if Lovie is still around.

So if Ron Turner gets the boot, do you think this will help Cutler?  What else can the Bears do given their limited resources to help Jay Cutler and the offense?  If you don’t think trading Jay makes sense and want to complain that he didn’t have the resources (receivers/line/coaching) to be successful, now is your chance to sound off.  At some point, the QB has to be responsible for wins and losses, so what can the Bears do to get their “franchise” QB in a position where he is ultimately responsible?  Let’s hear it, Cutler lovers!

With a strong finish, Jay Cutler cut down on his interceptions the past couple weeks and netted 27 TD passes and “only” 26 INTs for the season.  In the end, however, Cutler finished with a 7-9 record, leading a mediocre team to a less than mediocre record.

Changes are expected in Chicago this offseason, from the management to the coaches down to the players.  What remains to be seen is how the Bears plan on improving without the benefit of high draft picks and with fewer potential free agents depending on the status of the collective bargaining agreement.  Trading Jay Cutler may not be the most popular situation, but failing to trade him will result in an inability to build around him.

Chicago’s only chance is the fickle nature of quick turnarounds in the NFL.  Maybe Aaron Rodgers and Adrian Peterson get hurt.  Maybe Brett Favre leaves the game for real.  Maybe Chicago gets a few good bounces early in the 2010 season and has a chance at winning the division.  Maybe Olindo Mare will promise to kick against the Bears in every game next year.  That’s a lot of “maybes,” but if the Bears can find themselves with 9 wins heading into Week 17 next year, maybe a playoff berth will be in the cards.  Then Chicagoans can hope for the best, but as the last appearance by the Bears in a Super Bowl proved, building on a successful season in the NFL is never a given.